Monday, January 08, 2018

스티글리츠 교수 - 한미 FTA 재협상은 실수

오늘자 매경에 스티글리츠 교수가 2018년 전미경제학회에서 트럼프 행정부의 한미 FTA 재협상은 큰 실수라고 주장했다는 기사가 실렸다. 전미경제학회(American Economic Association) 홈페이지에 들어가 봤는데, 보다 차분한 톤의 페이퍼 두 개가 서브밋 된 거였다.

Trump and Globalization
Joseph E. Stiglitz, Columbia University

Abstract
In his campaign, Trump proposed to not only impose large tariffs against Mexico and China, but to renegotiate trade agreements. Protectionism was at the core of his agenda. At this juncture, it appears that the post-World War II global economic and political order may be under attack. As we approach the end of the first year of the Trump Administration, the question is: to what extent has he in fact up-ended the old order? What are the consequences? What has (or will) replace it? What will be the effects on living standards in the US and around the world?

Making Trade Globalization Inclusive
Joseph E. Stiglitz Columbia University

Under standard neoclassical assumptions, trade globalization was predicted to lower incomes of unskilled workers in advanced countries, in the absence of government intervention. It is not a Pareto improvement. Making matters worse, trade agreements have included intellectual property rights provisions and investment agreements which too have distributional effects, in some cases compounding the effects which arise from trade liberalization directly. (All of these effects arise and can be important even if most of the adverse impacts on unskilled workers are associated with changes in technology.) This paper seeks to analyze the design of Pareto improving trade liberalization packages, both the design of the trade agreements themselves and accompanying policy measures. It explores how the design of such trade packages may depend on the underlying assumptions about the functioning of the economy, e.g. the absence of certain risk markets and the presence of certain rigidities impairing the ability of the economy to maintain full employment. This theoretical analysis sets the state for an examination of current trade policies. The current Administration has proposed renegotiating trade agreements. Protectionism was at the core of his agenda. At this juncture, it appears that the post World War II global economic and political order may be under attack. As we approach the end of the first year of the Trump Administration, the question is: to what extent has he in fact up-ended the old order? What are the consequences? What has (or will) replace it? What will be the effects on living standards in the US and around the world? Will the new trade regime succeed in raising living standards? Will it making trade globalization more inclusive?

스티글리츠 교수의 주장에는 동의한다. 한미 FTA 재협상에서 미국이 원하는 것을 다 들어줘도 한-미 간 교역수지는 크게 변화가 없을 것이다. 어떤 이들은 트럼프의 치킨게임 같은 협상이 훌륭하다고 칭송하지만, 치킨게임도 약빨이 다되어 가는데다가, 치킨게임으로 표면적인 협상은 이겼어도 내실을 따져보면 자랑할 게 없다.

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